主题： Measuring the Cost of Bailouts

主讲人：Deborah Lucas

麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院金融学教授、麻省理工学院Golub金融与政策中心主任

主持人：黄英 教授

浙江大学管理学院财会系博士生导师、浙江大学资本市场研究中心主任

时间：2018年12月12日18:00—20:30

地点：浙江大学紫金港校区校友楼（李摩西楼）西溪厅

主讲人简介：

Dr. Lucas，麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院金融学教授，麻省理工学院Golub金融与政策中心主任。她拥有芝加哥大学学士，硕士和博士学位。目前研究重点是评估政府实体和金融投资活动及其投资风险，同时在资产定价与公司金融领域也发表了多篇论文。

Dr. Lucas现任美国国家经济研究局（NBER）研究员，清华大学五道口金融学院特聘教授，影子公开市场委员会委员，还担任美国纽约联邦储备银行、城市研究所和人口普查局咨询委员会成员，并担任The Annual Review of Financial Economics编委成员，The American Economic Journal Policy副主编，芝加哥商品交易所董事，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）顾问。

此前，Dr. Lucas曾担任美国国会预算办公室首席经济学家和副主任，社会保障技术咨询小组成员，美国经济顾问委员会资深经济学家，西北大学凯洛格管理学院教授和JMCB的联合主编。作为联邦信贷计划专家，她曾在美国国会就房利美和房地美等抵押贷款机构、学生贷款和一些具有重要战略意义的金融机构等作证发言。

讲座摘要:

A decade after the 2008 financial crisis, it is worthwhile to review what economists know about bailouts and the open questions that remain. A theoretical framework is developed to illustrate the principles that govern consistent and economically meaningful cost measurement, and the approach is applied to measuring the direct costs and beneficiaries of the major crisis-related bailouts in the U.S.  Drawing selectively on existing cost estimates and augmenting them with new calculations, I conclude that the total direct cost of crisis-related bailouts in the U.S. was on order of $500 billion, or 3.5 percent of GDP in 2009. The largest costs arose from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and TARP. The contingent liabilities of the Federal Reserve and the FDIC also were greatly elevated, but taxpayers were largely shielded from those exposures. The largest beneficiaries of the bailouts were the unsecured creditors of financial institutions, not stockholders. Those conclusions stand in sharp contrast to popular accounts that claim there was no cost because the money was repaid, and also with claims of costs in the multiple trillions of dollars. The estimated cost is large enough to suggest the importance of revisiting whether there might have been a more cost effective way to achieve similarly salutatory results. At the same time, it is small enough to call into question whether the benefits of ending bailouts permanently exceed the regulatory costs of policies aimed at achieving that goal. Directions for further research include undertaking a similar analysis for other countries and historical episodes.

欢迎广大师生踊跃参加！